What the polls look like for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris four weeks before the election

Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over Donald Trump in the 2024 race, with four weeks until Election Day.

Polls and forecasts suggest Harris is slightly ahead of the former president in terms of national averages. If they translate into election results, Harris will win the popular vote in November.

Harris also has a marginal advantage in swing states, which could determine who wins the 2024 election overall. The entire election could hinge on who wins the 19 Electoral College votes in the head-to-head race in Pennsylvania, a state where Harris currently has a razor-thin average lead.

The clearest path to Democratic victory in November would be to win the three blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as the lone Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Poll aggregator and forecaster 538 currently has Harris just ahead of Trump in these three battleground states, and with a significant lead in Nebraska’s 2nd district, meaning the vice president would reach the required vote threshold of 270 constituencies electoral.

538 also has Harris ahead in Nevada with four weeks to go. That gives the vice president a projected score of 276 electoral college votes in November, barring shocking results elsewhere.

Trump’s most effective path to victory would be to win the battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, giving the Republican exactly 270 electoral college votes. The former president could also beat Harris by winning the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and flipping just one of Michigan or Wisconsin.

What the national electoral averages look like

According to 538, Harris leads Trump by an average of 2.6 points (48.5% to 45.9%) with four weeks to go.

Pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar forecasting model, gives Harris a national average lead over Trump by 3 points (49.2% to 46.2%).

The RealClearPolitics national average, which tends to favor Republican voter groups, has Harris ahead by 2.1 points (48.9% to 46.8%).

Newsweek reached out to the two campaign teams for comment via email.

Swing State Survey

Pennsylvania

With the clearest path to victories for both Harris and Trump involving Pennsylvania, the results in the Keystone State will be watched with great interest.

Polls suggest Pennsylvania could still go either way, with 538 showing Harris with an average marginal lead of 0.7 points (48% to 47.3%).

An OnMessage poll on behalf of the Sentinel Action Fund said Harris and Trump are tied 47% in Pennsylvania. The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted Sept. 28-29, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

A Trafalgar Group poll of 1,090 likely Pennsylvania voters, conducted between September 26 and 29, showed Trump with a 2-point lead over Harris in the state (47% to 45%). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

An Emerson College Polling/RealClear PA poll conducted Sept. 27-28 also showed Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania at 48%. The poll sampled 1,000 likely voters and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Arizona

The average of 538 polls shows Trump ahead by 1.5 points in Arizona (48.2% to 46.7%).

A recent InsiderAdvantage poll of Sun Belt swing states has Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris in the Grand Canyon State (49% to 48%). The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted between September 29 and 30, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

An Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld poll gave Trump a larger than 3-point lead in Arizona (50% to 47%). The poll of 920 likely voters was conducted Sept. 27-28, with the results having a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

Georgia

According to 538, Trump is ahead by just over 1 point on average in the Peach State (48.3% to 47.2%).

The InsiderAdvantage Sun Belt poll of 800 likely voters has Trump and Harris tied in Georgia at 48%, with a margin or error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

A Quinnipiac University poll shows Trump with a 5-point lead over Harris among 942 likely voters in Georgia in a head-to-head race, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

In a full presidential vote that includes independent or third-party candidates, Trump expands his lead to 6 points (50% to 44%).

Michigan

According to 538, Harris has an average lead of 1.7 points in Michigan over Trump (48% vs. 46.3).

A statewide poll by MIRS and Michigan News Source of 709 likely voters, conducted Sept. 30 by Mitchell Research & Communications, shows the former president with a one-point lead over Harris in a head-to-head matchup (49% to 48%).

When the poll is expanded to a total of eight presidential candidates, Trump and Harris are tied at 47%. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

An RMG Research poll of 789 likely Michigan voters, conducted Sept. 24-27, gave Harris a 3-point lead over Trump (50% to 47%). The results have a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

North Carolina

Trump’s average lead in the Sun Belt state, crucial to his 2024 hopes, is 0.9 points by 538’s calculations.

InsiderAdvantage’s Sun Belt State poll of 800 likely voters in North Carolina gave Trump a one-point lead (50% to 49%). The results have a margin or error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

A Washington Post A poll of 1,001 likely North Carolina voters found that 50% support Trump, while 48% support Harris. The survey was conducted from September 25 to 29, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Wisconsin

Harris’ average lead in the blue wall battleground state of Wisconsin is 1.6 points (48.4% to 46.8%) according to 538.

A recent Marquette Law School poll showed Harris leading by 4 points over Trump (52% to 48%) among registered and likely voters in a head-to-head matchup.

In a comprehensive ballot for a presidential candidate that included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (3%), Harris had a 5-point lead over Trump among likely voters (49% to 44%).

The Marquette Law School Poll was conducted Sept. 18-26 among 882 registered voters and 798 likely voters. The margin of error for both results is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

An ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters also showed Harris with a 4-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin (52% to 48).

The poll was conducted from August 29 to September 29, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Nevada

538 say Harris has a 1-point lead over Trump in Nevada (47.9% to 46.9)

The recent InsiderAdvantage poll had Trump with a 1-point lead in the Silver State (49% to 48%). The poll of 800 likely voters has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

A TIPP Insight poll of 1,044 registered voters in Nevada showed Harris with a 1-point lead over Trump (50% to 49%). The survey was conducted Sept. 23-25 ​​with a margin or error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s forecast model says Harris has a 53% chance of winning the 2024 election in November.

Past elections: Drawing similarities

Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton were predicted to beat Trump with four weeks left in the 2016 and 2020 campaigns.

Biden went on to beat Trump in both the popular vote by 7 million votes and 306 to 232 in the Electoral College vote in the last election.

While Clinton won the popular vote by three million votes in 2016, Trump pulled off a shocking result by winning in the Electoral College vote by 304 votes to 227.