Trump vs. Harris Polls 2024: Harris leads by four points in latest national poll, in virtual tie in swing states

Top line

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is close to a tie less than five weeks before the election, according to a series of polls this month: the last four show Harris with a lead of two to five points .

However, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a lead over former President Donald Trump in national polls … [+] crucial swing states remain virtually tied.

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Key facts

Harris holds a 49% to 46% lead in a national New York Times/Siena poll released Tuesday, which the outlet said is a four-point lead when candidates’ “unrounded vote shares” are calculated.

Harris leads 50% to 48% in an Emerson poll released Thursday, and is up five points, 51% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll.

Harris leads by five points, 49% to 44%, in a Susquehanna poll released this week, and by three points in an Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday, margins matching the previous Economist/YouGov poll of 21- September 24th.

Harris rose 5 points, from 50% to 45%, in last week’s Morning Consult poll, down from a six-point lead (her largest yet in Morning Consult polls) a week earlier, though her index favorability among likely voters had reached a record (53% compared to Trump’s 45%).

Three polls in the past month — a Quinnipiac poll released on Sept. 24, a New York Times/Siena poll on Sept. 19, and a CNN/SSRS poll released on Sept. 24 — showed Trump and Harris tied, while virtually all other polls show Harris ahead.

Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since she announced her candidacy on July 21, though her lead has shrunk slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to the average weighted by FiveThirtyEight polls.

Big number

2.1. That’s the number of points Harris leads Trump in the latest polling average from RealClearPolitics. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 2.8 point lead.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states that are likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to the Cook Political Report poll released Wednesday. Harris leads Trump in five states, Trump is ahead by two points in Georgia and they are tied in North Carolina.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released on September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is narrowing. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — showed 54% supported Harris compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who would you vote for? Support for Harris is higher than when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous advantages Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polls and 50 points in the 2016 survey. The survey had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

What impact did the debate have on the polls?

Pre-debate polls found that Harris’ polling surge appeared to be leveling off, including an NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from the three-point lead in August. . Harris rose two points, from 47% to 49%, in a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in August’s Emerson poll. Most post-debate polls show that most respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to have a significant impact on the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters, released Sept. 19, found that a majority of voters in every demographic gave positive ratings of Harris’ performance in the Sept. 10 debate, with 67% saying overall said she did well, compared to 40% who said Harris performed well in the Sept. 10 debate. the same goes for Trump (Trump led Harris 48%-47% in Times/Siena polls from early September to late July). The poll also found that Harris and Trump are tied at 47%. Two more polls from September 19 show Harris with a slight lead: she is up four points (49%-45%) in a YouGov/Economist poll of registered voters and by two points (50%-48%) in a Fox poll News. likely poll among voters, a small shift after Harris trailed by one point in an early August Fox poll and led by just two points in an early September YouGov poll. Harris rose 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from her lead by six points with likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late August and early August, even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.

Tangent

Harris narrowed Trump’s lead in Iowa over Biden from 18 points in June to four points in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted Sept. 8-11 by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, known for her accuracy .

Key background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of resisting calls from his own party to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Pundits, including former Fox News host Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss, widely considered Harris the winner of the debate, as she repeatedly needled Trump, causing him to veer off topic. Harris’ rise in the polls is accompanied by an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% today, while enthusiasm among Republicans remained stagnant at 71%. according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.